Many would have watched The Great Global Warming Swindle on ABC TV last Thursday night (12^th June 2007), and others may have viewed it already after I posted the video in the FTSU newsletter a few months ago. I think you would agree that it certainly gives pause for thought.

What I find interesting is that both sides of the debate have compelling science to back up their views, but both are too busy defending their positions to stop and consider that perhaps they are both right - maybe it is their theories that are wrong.

It is much like the Indian parable of blind men analysing an elephant. A man at the tail declares that an elephant is long and round; a man at the ears declares it as large and flat, etc. They are all right, of course - but it will only be when all their ‘facts' are combined that they will truly be able to describe ‘the' elephant.

• Both sides agree that the earth is warming, though the rate is debated
• Both agree that ‘something' aside from CO2 started the warming
• Both agree that warming episodes have occurred in the past
• When the earth warms atmospheric CO2 levels rise
• CO2 increases lag behind temperature rises
• CO2 is a greenhouse gas
• Water vapour is a major greenhouse gas
• But they disagree on whether CO2 is the cause and/or driver of global warming
• And whether global warming is man/technology-induced
• Which then questions whether mopping up CO2 is a solution
• Neither side is talking about the role of biology in global warming or cooling

There is also growing cynicism about government and big business's motivations for finally joining the global warming ‘clean up', but:

• When consumers create demand, businesses will supply and money will flow
• Businesses are vilified as the problem so they have to respond to survive
• It's logical to develop risk management plans when a risk is forecast
• But this does not mean they necessarily ‘believe' in global warming
• Business will logically work on those solutions that suit their business interests

So what might the elephant really look like?

• In past warming periods the earth managed to cool down naturally
• Neither man nor technology was involved
• Nature has natural negative biofeedback loops to counter warming and cooling
• This has been ignored by many global warming proponents

Natural negative feedback loops that cool the globe include:

• When temperatures and CO2 levels rise, plants and microbes grow prolifically
• Plants and microbes seed clouds, mopping up excess water vapour
• Clouds cool by reflecting solar radiation and shading underneath
• More plants, microbes and soil sequester more carbon
• More plants, microbes and soil sequester more water
• More plants cool via shade, low albedo and biochemical reactions

So what is happening now:

• ‘Something' natural has initiated the current warming
• But global warming is accelerating unnaturally
• Which is most likely due to increasing greenhouse gases
• But there is also man's unprecedented destruction of biology*

Carbon dioxide - one greenhouse gas:

• Warming oceans  are releasing massive levels of CO2 to the atmosphere
• Hence some of the CO2 increase does lag behind temperature increases
• But decomposing biology*, accelerated by man, also releases huge levels of CO2
• And some CO2 is released from man's burning of hydrocarbons
• All this is exacerbated as biological destruction prevents prolific growth and CO2 sequestration

Water vapour - another greenhouse gas:

• Without biology, cloud seeding is hampered
• Resulting in less cloud formation therefore less cooling
• And leaves more atmospheric water vapour to contribute to more heating
• And without biology, water sequestration is hindered
  
• And even more water vapour enters the atmosphere
• And erratic rainfall events become more likely, including more intense weather events

Summary:

• As CO2 and water vapour (greenhouse gas) levels increase
• And negative feedback loops disappear
• And the remaining bare earth continues to absorb more solar radiation
• The globe continues to warm up exponentially

Conclusions:

• Global warming started naturally
• But global warming acceleration is man-made
• CO2 is not the only, or even main, contributing greenhouse gas
• Water vapour is also important
• Along with the breakdown of natural negative feedback loops
• Therefore simply mopping up CO2 cannot be ‘the' solution
• And stopping/limiting hydrocarbon combustion cannot be ‘the' solution**
• Getting natural negative feedback loops going again is a solution***
• Which will require production readjustments, but win-wins for all
• And agriculture is at the heart of the solutions, not technology
• Changes in global warming can be turned around remarkably quickly
• This solution goes way beyond just mopping up CO2 and is remarkably achievable - its a matter of working with nature
• Something many people are already doing and proving, but needs to become mainstream and global
  

*     Biology here refers to plants, microbes and soils (although domesticated livestock contribute methane, another greenhouse gas, they do little negative feedback looping that I am aware of)

**   Burning hydrocarbons creates toxic pollution that kills biology, and provides energy to physically destroy biology on a massive scale, so it does need to be reigned in

***      Cleaner and greener use of energy and limits on consumption can only help with the biological solution